Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Slouching Toward Oscar Sunday--The MS Maven Oscar Predix Extravaganza!!!
Hi Folks!
It's that time of year when the mornings are cold, the days are getting longer, and the Maven makes her annual predictions for her High Holy Day.
But first, I will make one prediction perfectly clear. I believe this year's Oscar show will go down as one of the worst in history. Now, you may ask why I say this when the show is still about 24 hours away. Two names: Lawrence Mark and Bill Condon. They couldn't make Dreamgirls into a palatable film (and the wonderful Jennifer Hudson was the film's only saving grace--and they were damned lucky she graced the film w/ her presence), so how are they going to produce a decent show? Configuring the awards into a narrative throughout the evening? More song and dance numbers to pick up the spirits of a downward nation? Queen Latifah singing for the "In Memorium" segment? Have they lost their fucking minds? I'm just glad I've got a fully stocked bar to get through the evening.
Hugh Jackman is one hot dude (not as hot as George Clooney Baby, but stil), but don't know that he can save this one. It's been said there will not be a lot of political/topical jokes. Look, Bill Condon is not Gower Champion, so why the emphasis on the shuck-and-jive routines? They claim the country needs to have a positive show. Here's a suggestion: focus on the movies rather than dance numbers. The country is already near suicide en masse, so don't make us pull the trigger.
Enough of that. Here's the predictions:
Picture--Slumdog Millionaire
upset--Milk
However, never underestimate a Miramax Jew. Weinstein and The Reader could pull it off, plus it would be a tribute to the late great Anthony Minghella and Sydney Pollack. But don't be surprised w/ an upset in the category, despite what the pundits indicate. I think Milk is the best film of the lot and has a shot, as does Button, over the horrifically overrated Slumdog. Slumdog is a film that has become popular because it exhibits real poverty in the first half and turns into an unrealistic film in the latter half. Happy endings in dark times, they say (whomever "they" are). Sorry the film is a perverse carnival ride that trivializes the plight of a lot of Indian citizens. Don't mean to be cynical for, as I said, I did enjoy it. But Oscar worthy? It's like that line from George W. Bush at a press conference in France years ago when an American reporter tried to ask a question in French. W's reply? "Listen to this. He says a few words in French and he thinks he's an intercontenental." Need I say more?
Director--Danny Boyle
upset--David Fincher
Actor--Mickey Rourke
upset--Sean Penn
This is a really hard one. These performances are two of the best I've seen since Duvall in the Apostle, and you all know how I feel about him. Both in the roles of their career. Won't be upset if either wins and either win will be a highly emotional moment for me.
Actress--Kate Winslet
upset--Meryl Streep
Save for Iris, this is the role of Winslet's career, not the terrible Revolutionary Road; folks are blinded by the Roger Deakins light (and why the hell is he not nominated for this?) for this one, for it's a beautiful package w/ nothing inside. Whatever you feel about The Reader, and though it's uneven I do like it, she is incredible in it. That said, why the hell isn't Sally Hawkins here? But I digress. I am really surprised that folks are considering Streep. She's fine (as is Viola Davis) in a very weak film. I think it's because she won the SAG but folks don't consider she may have won because she had never won a SAG before, plus the mixed-up confusion w/ what to do w/ Kate (and, sorry, she should have been in Actress over Supporting all along for The Reader).
Supporting Actor--Heath Ledger
upset--Robert Downey, Jr.
Heath's dead, he'll win. That's it. He truly deserves to win for his original, haunting performance. But I would vote for Michael Shannon, easily the best thing about ROAD. 15 minutes and blows everyone out of the water. Would love to see Downey take it, but Ledger make be taking one for the Dark Knight team for not being up for Picture or Director by winning.
Supporting Actress--Penelope Cruz
upset--Viola Davis
I said forever that Cruz is a lock. But I don't think anyone saw the movie. Woody didn't get a screenplay nod for one of his best films, so that says a lot. But don't count her out. Davis is every bit as good, and this is the toughest category of the night, what w/ Winslet out of the category. But don't be surprised if Taraji P. Henson wins; she should have been up for Hustle and Flow and this may bode well for her. And wouldn't it be funny as hell if, as in 1991, the actresses split the votes once again and Marisa Tomei won? Love Davis and love Cruz, but I've flip-flopped worse than John Kerry on the Chesapeake Bay on this one, but I'm gonna stay w/ my original gut on this one and go w/ Cruz. Ask me in an hour and could change, but seriously, I'm staying w/ Cruz.
Original Screenplay--Milk
upset--Wall-E
Adapted Screenplay--Slumdog Millionaire
upset--The Reader
Foreign-Language Film--The Class
upset--Waltz With Bashir
Original Score--Slumdog Millionaire
upset--Wall-E
Song--"Down to Earth"
upset--"Jai Ho"
Animated Feature--Wall-E
upset--No upset, no questions asked.
Cinematography--Slumdog Millionaire
upset--The Dark Knight
Editing--Slumdog Millionaire
upset--The Dark Knight
Art Direction--Benjamin Button
upset--Revolutionary Road
Costume Design--The Dutchess
upset--Benjamin Button
Sound Mixing--The Dark Knight
upset--Wall-E
Sound Effects Editing--The Dark Knight
upset--Wall-E
Visual Effects--The Dark Knight
upset--Benjamin Button
Makeup--Benjamin Button
upset--Hellboy II
Documentary Feature--Man on Wire
upset--Trouble the Water
Documentary Short--The Witness
upset--Conscience of Nhem Em
Live Action Short--On the Line
upset--The Pig
Animated Short--Presto
upset--La Maison en Petits Cubes
WINS
Slumdog Millionaire 7
Milk 2
Doubt 1
The Dark Knight 4
Benjamin Button 4
The Reader 1
Frost/Nixon 0
Wall-E 2
Running Time: 3 hours 26 minutes
That's it. I hope I'm wrong in a few categories. Feel free to call/text during the show: 423-943-9566. Feel free to message/send your predictions. I'll be ranting and raving and avoiding grading. I usually predict one major surprise but this may actually be a year in which there is more than one, so I'm begging off. I just hope the show is not as bad as I anticipate it will be.
Enough said. Happy Oscar!
It's that time of year when the mornings are cold, the days are getting longer, and the Maven makes her annual predictions for her High Holy Day.
But first, I will make one prediction perfectly clear. I believe this year's Oscar show will go down as one of the worst in history. Now, you may ask why I say this when the show is still about 24 hours away. Two names: Lawrence Mark and Bill Condon. They couldn't make Dreamgirls into a palatable film (and the wonderful Jennifer Hudson was the film's only saving grace--and they were damned lucky she graced the film w/ her presence), so how are they going to produce a decent show? Configuring the awards into a narrative throughout the evening? More song and dance numbers to pick up the spirits of a downward nation? Queen Latifah singing for the "In Memorium" segment? Have they lost their fucking minds? I'm just glad I've got a fully stocked bar to get through the evening.
Hugh Jackman is one hot dude (not as hot as George Clooney Baby, but stil), but don't know that he can save this one. It's been said there will not be a lot of political/topical jokes. Look, Bill Condon is not Gower Champion, so why the emphasis on the shuck-and-jive routines? They claim the country needs to have a positive show. Here's a suggestion: focus on the movies rather than dance numbers. The country is already near suicide en masse, so don't make us pull the trigger.
Enough of that. Here's the predictions:
Picture--Slumdog Millionaire
upset--Milk
However, never underestimate a Miramax Jew. Weinstein and The Reader could pull it off, plus it would be a tribute to the late great Anthony Minghella and Sydney Pollack. But don't be surprised w/ an upset in the category, despite what the pundits indicate. I think Milk is the best film of the lot and has a shot, as does Button, over the horrifically overrated Slumdog. Slumdog is a film that has become popular because it exhibits real poverty in the first half and turns into an unrealistic film in the latter half. Happy endings in dark times, they say (whomever "they" are). Sorry the film is a perverse carnival ride that trivializes the plight of a lot of Indian citizens. Don't mean to be cynical for, as I said, I did enjoy it. But Oscar worthy? It's like that line from George W. Bush at a press conference in France years ago when an American reporter tried to ask a question in French. W's reply? "Listen to this. He says a few words in French and he thinks he's an intercontenental." Need I say more?
Director--Danny Boyle
upset--David Fincher
Actor--Mickey Rourke
upset--Sean Penn
This is a really hard one. These performances are two of the best I've seen since Duvall in the Apostle, and you all know how I feel about him. Both in the roles of their career. Won't be upset if either wins and either win will be a highly emotional moment for me.
Actress--Kate Winslet
upset--Meryl Streep
Save for Iris, this is the role of Winslet's career, not the terrible Revolutionary Road; folks are blinded by the Roger Deakins light (and why the hell is he not nominated for this?) for this one, for it's a beautiful package w/ nothing inside. Whatever you feel about The Reader, and though it's uneven I do like it, she is incredible in it. That said, why the hell isn't Sally Hawkins here? But I digress. I am really surprised that folks are considering Streep. She's fine (as is Viola Davis) in a very weak film. I think it's because she won the SAG but folks don't consider she may have won because she had never won a SAG before, plus the mixed-up confusion w/ what to do w/ Kate (and, sorry, she should have been in Actress over Supporting all along for The Reader).
Supporting Actor--Heath Ledger
upset--Robert Downey, Jr.
Heath's dead, he'll win. That's it. He truly deserves to win for his original, haunting performance. But I would vote for Michael Shannon, easily the best thing about ROAD. 15 minutes and blows everyone out of the water. Would love to see Downey take it, but Ledger make be taking one for the Dark Knight team for not being up for Picture or Director by winning.
Supporting Actress--Penelope Cruz
upset--Viola Davis
I said forever that Cruz is a lock. But I don't think anyone saw the movie. Woody didn't get a screenplay nod for one of his best films, so that says a lot. But don't count her out. Davis is every bit as good, and this is the toughest category of the night, what w/ Winslet out of the category. But don't be surprised if Taraji P. Henson wins; she should have been up for Hustle and Flow and this may bode well for her. And wouldn't it be funny as hell if, as in 1991, the actresses split the votes once again and Marisa Tomei won? Love Davis and love Cruz, but I've flip-flopped worse than John Kerry on the Chesapeake Bay on this one, but I'm gonna stay w/ my original gut on this one and go w/ Cruz. Ask me in an hour and could change, but seriously, I'm staying w/ Cruz.
Original Screenplay--Milk
upset--Wall-E
Adapted Screenplay--Slumdog Millionaire
upset--The Reader
Foreign-Language Film--The Class
upset--Waltz With Bashir
Original Score--Slumdog Millionaire
upset--Wall-E
Song--"Down to Earth"
upset--"Jai Ho"
Animated Feature--Wall-E
upset--No upset, no questions asked.
Cinematography--Slumdog Millionaire
upset--The Dark Knight
Editing--Slumdog Millionaire
upset--The Dark Knight
Art Direction--Benjamin Button
upset--Revolutionary Road
Costume Design--The Dutchess
upset--Benjamin Button
Sound Mixing--The Dark Knight
upset--Wall-E
Sound Effects Editing--The Dark Knight
upset--Wall-E
Visual Effects--The Dark Knight
upset--Benjamin Button
Makeup--Benjamin Button
upset--Hellboy II
Documentary Feature--Man on Wire
upset--Trouble the Water
Documentary Short--The Witness
upset--Conscience of Nhem Em
Live Action Short--On the Line
upset--The Pig
Animated Short--Presto
upset--La Maison en Petits Cubes
WINS
Slumdog Millionaire 7
Milk 2
Doubt 1
The Dark Knight 4
Benjamin Button 4
The Reader 1
Frost/Nixon 0
Wall-E 2
Running Time: 3 hours 26 minutes
That's it. I hope I'm wrong in a few categories. Feel free to call/text during the show: 423-943-9566. Feel free to message/send your predictions. I'll be ranting and raving and avoiding grading. I usually predict one major surprise but this may actually be a year in which there is more than one, so I'm begging off. I just hope the show is not as bad as I anticipate it will be.
Enough said. Happy Oscar!
Sunday, February 15, 2009
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Monday, February 2, 2009
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